Measuring Perceived Trends

In an article just published in MethodsX, my PhD student Kathrine Egfjord and I propose a simple Delphi-inspired methodology for eliciting and measuring perceptions of industry change. The method is designed to provide a qualitative comparison of the perceptions of different groups of individuals. We used it to compare the perceptions of two different groups of managers, subjected to different information environments in their daily jobs. Not surprisingly we found that they perceive different trends.

Business Models and Cognition

At the end of 2020 our new edited book “Business Models and Cognition” will be available online and in print. In this book we explore, together with group of top business model scholars, how cognition theories can benefit business model studies. In our introductory paper, “Exploring the Connections Between Business Models and Cognition: A Commentary”, I present my reflections together with Robert Galavan and Marcel Bogers.

Exploring Marketing Challenges and Advertiser-Agency Relationships

My former PhD fellow Henrik Jensen and I have just published an article in the newly established Nordic Journal of Media Management (Aalborg University Press), based on his PhD thesis, in which we explore contemporary marketing challenges from the perspective of Danish advertisers, and how these advertisers use different types of agencies. We conclude (among others) that larger advertisers use multiple different types of agencies to solve marketing problems, but prefer to retain control (i.e. avoiding the one-stop-shop model).

Moving teaching online during the Corona epidemic

Universities and other higher education institutions are closing down across the world due to the Corona epidemic, and many instructors are being asked to move their teaching online. As most will have no experience with this I have written a short paper outlining some recommendations based on my own experience of leading online programmes and teaching online courses. Feel free to share.

Do you see what I see?

Together with one of my PhD students, Kathrine Egfjord, I just published a paper in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, entitled “Do you see what I see? How differing perceptions of the environment can hinder radical business model innovation“. In this paper we “suggest that differences in strategic issue identification and interpretation can help to explain the cognitive barriers that emerge when incumbent firms try to engage with radical business model innovation. We propose and test a Delphi-based method to elicit and examine differences in the perception of industry trends, comparing innovators, core business employees, and external experts, in the context of a leading Nordic insurance firm. We find considerable disagreement between members of the innovation department and the core business, in this firm. We suggest this helps explain why internal innovators find it challenging to “sell” radically new business models to the core business. More generally, we contribute to the growing literature on business model innovation in incumbent firms.” The full paper can be downloaded here.

Call for Papers for New Horizons in Managerial and Organizational Cognition Volume 5 (2021 publication)

We have published the call for papers for the 2021 volume of New Horizons in Managerial and Organizational Cognition. This is the fifth anniversary volume, which will have the tentative title “Thinking about Cognition”. Papers will be published in print book format, as well as digital format by Emerald. The call for papers can be downloaded below.

Dimensionering en ommer

Denne uge skrev jeg følgende debatindlæg til Dagbladet, som blev bragt 20. marts 2019:

“For nyligt udtalte uddannelses- og forskningsminister Tommy Ahlers meget sympatisk til Dagbladet at studerende skal vælge uddannelse med ”passion”, og ”ikke ud fra jobstatistik eller andre menneskers forventninger” (9. marts 2019). Jeg er rørende enig med Ministeren, men det tror jeg hverken hans eget embedsværk, eller hans politiske forgængere fra rød og blå blok er.

De har nemlig de sidste år bygget et system på antagelser om hvad samfundet har brug for, fremfor hvad individet har lyst til. Et system som bruger (gammel) jobstatistik til at tvinge studerende ud i den ene frem for den anden uddannelse. Dette blev hamret fast med syvtommerssøm da den ledighedsbaserede dimensionering af videregående uddannelser blev iværksat i efteråret 2015.

Ideen med dimensionering var at sætte loft på optagelsen til en lang række uddannelser, baseret på historiske ledighedstal. Som i det gamle Sovjet, fik universiteter kvoter fra ministeriet som skulle overholdes. Men grundlæggende baserer hele dimensioneringstanken sig på to helt banale fejlagtige antagelser.

Den første fejl er at man i ministeriet antager at en studerende ender med at benytte sin uddannelse, direkte, i både sit første job, og resten af arbejdslivet. Dette er sjældent tilfældet. For det første ender dimittender i alle mulige forskellige jobs rundt omkring i det private og det offentlige, som nogle gange relaterer sig direkte, andre gange kun indirekte, eller ikke i det hele taget, til den uddannelse de har valgt. Sådan er det i et frit og åbent arbejdsmarked. For det andet vil den gennemsnitlige dimittend i dag blive på arbejdsmarkedet i 45-55 år. I den tid vil det være helt normalt at skifte både arbejdsgiver og funktion mange gange. Høj eller lav efterspørgsel efter ens uddannelse lige præcis i dag behøver man derfor ikke gå så meget op i.

Den anden fejl er at man antager at kunne forudse hvad arbejdsmarkedet har brug for i fremtiden, ud fra jobstatistik fra fortiden. Det luget lidt for meget af planlægningsøkonomi. Optagelseskvoter på bachelor i dag, og dermed hvilke dimittender skal udklækkes som kandidater tidligst i 2024, baseres på arbejdsløshedstal fra 2005 til 2014. Man benytter altså op til 15 år gamle tal til at detailplanlægge ”dimittendproduktionen” mindst 5 år frem i tiden. En 20-25 års planlægningshorisont. Sandheden er at hverken politikkere, embedsmænd, eller universitetsledelser, har en jordisk chance for at forudse hvordan samfund, teknologi, og det danske arbejdsmarked ser ud mange år ud i fremtiden.

Dimensioneringen er en ommer…”